Evaluating Hydrodynamic and Bathtub Water-Level Models to Assess Storm Surge Flooding in the Canadian Arctic - The case of Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, Canada

Daniel António Gaudêncio Pinheiro

Key information

Authors:

Daniel António Gaudêncio Pinheiro (Daniel António Gaudêncio Pinheiro)

Supervisors:

Gonçalo Brito Guapo Teles Vieira; João Alfredo Vieira Canário (João Alfredo Vieira Canário)

Published in

12/10/2021

Abstract

Arctic warming is leading to an increased reduction in sea ice, with models for 2100 indicating a reduction in the Arctic sea ice area from 43 to 94% in September and from 8 to 34% in February (IPCC, 2021). The increase of the sea-ice free season duration will result in more exposure of the coasts to wave action, with changing climate also modifying the contribution of terrestrial erosion processes. The increase of the sea-ice free season duration will result in more exposure of the coasts to wave action, with changing climate also modifying the contribution of terrestrial erosion processes. During the short open water season (June to October) there has been an increase in coastal storms in the Beaufort Sea this has led to an increment in coastal erosion and flooding (Fritz et al., 2015, Ramage et al., 2018). This work focused on the Hamlet of Tuktoyaktuk (Northwest Territories, Canada), where ultra-high-resolution surveys with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been conducted, allowing to generate orthophoto mosaics and digital surface models (DSM) that were used as inputs for a probabilistic flood model and MOHID hydrodynamic model. From the IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, it is expected that 29.2 to 32.2% (MOHID: 14.4 to 16.1%) of the study area is permanently submerged by 2100, only accounting for the sea level rise. These percentages can go up to 76.5 to 80% (MOHID: 56 to 60%) during a storm surge event with a 100-year return period.