Artigo

Time-dependent ship hull reliability accounting for non-stationary stochastic degradation process

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Kakaie, A. ; Garbatov, Y.; Guedes Soares, C. — 2026 — Elvesier

Informações chave

Autores:

Kakaie, A. (Arman Kakaie); Garbatov, Y. (Yordan Garbatov); Guedes Soares, C. (Carlos Guedes Soares)

Publicado em

Janeiro 2026

Resumo

This study proposes a framework to estimate the time-dependent reliability of a ship hull girder accounting for the autocorrelation of deteriorated ship hull ultimate bending capacity and its dependency on the still water and wave-induced loadings. The ultimate strength is affected by ship hull structural corrosion degradation, modelled by a Gamma stochastic process. The reliability analysis uses the sequential importance sampling approach to deal with high-dimensional problems. The structural failure probability of a double-hull tanker is analysed to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach. The impact of considering the autocorrelation of the bending moment capacity and its dependency on the still water and wave-induced loadings on the time-dependent hull girder reliability is investigated. A sequential importance sampling method-based sensitivity analysis is also performed to quantify the influence of involved random variables in the limit state function.

Detalhes da publicação

Autores da comunidade :

Versão da publicação

VoR - Versão publicada

Editora

Elvesier

Ligação para a versão da editora

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832025008026?via%3Dihub

Título do contentor da publicação

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Primeira página ou número de artigo

111602

Volume

265

Fascículo

Part B

DOI

10.1016/j.ress.2025.111602

Domínio Científico (FOS)

other-engineering-and-technologies - Outras Ciências da Engenharia e Tecnologias

Palavras-chave

  • Reliability
  • Ship Hull
  • Bending moment capacity
  • Corrosion degradation
  • Sequential importance sampling
  • Gamma stochastic process

Idioma da publicação (código ISO)

eng - Inglês

Acesso à publicação:

Acesso Aberto

Entidade financiadora da bolsa/projeto

Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

Identificador da Entidade Financiadora: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871

Tipo de identificador da Entidade Financiadora: Crossref Funder

Número de bolsa/projeto: UIDB-UIDP-00134-2020