Article

Time-dependent ship hull reliability accounting for non-stationary stochastic degradation process

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

Kakaie, A. ; Garbatov, Y.; Guedes Soares, C. — 2026 — Elvesier

Key information

Authors:

Kakaie, A. (Arman Kakaie); Garbatov, Y. (Yordan Garbatov); Guedes Soares, C. (Carlos Guedes Soares)

Published in

January 2026

Abstract

This study proposes a framework to estimate the time-dependent reliability of a ship hull girder accounting for the autocorrelation of deteriorated ship hull ultimate bending capacity and its dependency on the still water and wave-induced loadings. The ultimate strength is affected by ship hull structural corrosion degradation, modelled by a Gamma stochastic process. The reliability analysis uses the sequential importance sampling approach to deal with high-dimensional problems. The structural failure probability of a double-hull tanker is analysed to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach. The impact of considering the autocorrelation of the bending moment capacity and its dependency on the still water and wave-induced loadings on the time-dependent hull girder reliability is investigated. A sequential importance sampling method-based sensitivity analysis is also performed to quantify the influence of involved random variables in the limit state function.

Publication details

Authors in the community:

Publication version

VoR - Version of Record

Publisher

Elvesier

Link to the publisher's version

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832025008026?via%3Dihub

Title of the publication container

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

First page or article number

111602

Volume

265

Issue

Part B

DOI

10.1016/j.ress.2025.111602

Fields of Science and Technology (FOS)

other-engineering-and-technologies - Other engineering and technologies

Keywords

  • Reliability
  • Ship Hull
  • Bending moment capacity
  • Corrosion degradation
  • Sequential importance sampling
  • Gamma stochastic process

Publication language (ISO code)

eng - English

Rights type:

Open access

Financing entity

Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

Identifier for the funding entity: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871

Type of identifier of the funding entity: Crossref Funder

Number for the project, award or grant: UIDB-UIDP-00134-2020