Article In: cienciavitae

Operational wave forecast selection in the Atlantic Ocean using random forests

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

Campos, Ricardo M.; Costa, Mariana O.; Guedes Soares, Carlos — 2021 — MDPI AG

Key information

Authors:

Campos, Ricardo M.; Costa, Mariana O.; Almeida, Fabio; Guedes Soares, Carlos (Carlos Guedes Soares)

Published in

March 8, 2021

Abstract

<jats:p>The existence of multiple wave forecasts leads to the question of which one should be used in practical ocean engineering applications. Ensemble forecasts have emerged as an important complement to deterministic forecasts, with better performances at mid-to-long ranges; however, they add another option to the variety of wave predictions that are available nowadays. This study developed random forest (RF) postprocessing models to identify the best wave forecast between two National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP) products (deterministic and ensemble). The supervised learning classifier was trained using National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoy data and the RF model accuracies were analyzed as a function of the forecast time. A careful feature selection was performed by evaluating the impact of the wind and wave variables (inputs) on the RF accuracy. The results showed that the RF models were able to select the best forecast only in the very short range using input information regarding the significant wave height, wave direction and period, and ensemble spread. At forecast day 5 and beyond, the RF models could not determine the best wave forecast with high accuracy; the feature space presented no clear pattern to allow for successful classification. The challenges and limitations of such RF predictions for longer forecast ranges are discussed in order to support future studies in this area.</jats:p>

Publication details

Authors in the community:

Publication version

VoR - Version of Record

Publisher

MDPI AG

Link to the publisher's version

https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/9/3/298

Title of the publication container

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

First page or article number

298

Volume

9

Issue

3

ISSN

2077-1312

DOI

10.3390/jmse9030298

Fields of Science and Technology (FOS)

other-engineering-and-technologies - Other engineering and technologies

Keywords

  • Ocean Engineering
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • wave forecasts
  • random forests
  • decision trees
  • numerical wave modeling
  • ensemble forecasting
  • extreme events
  • data mining

Publication language (ISO code)

eng - English

Alternative identifier (URI)

http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse9030298

Rights type:

Open access