Cyberwarfare and Critical Infrastructure - Insights from cyberattacks on Ukraine’s power grids

12/13/2024

The expansion of cyberspace has reshaped modern warfare, introducing conflict dimensions beyond traditional physical boundaries. This dissertation examines cyberwarfare with a focus on critical infrastructure, analyzing the 2015 and 2016 cyberattacks on Ukraine’s power grids. These incidents demonstrate how cyber operations can cause tangible harm to essential services, exposing vulnerabilities in interconnected systems and highlighting legal and strategic complexities. The study addresses ambiguous definitions of cyberwarfare in international law, referencing the Tallinn Manual 2.0 and challenges in classifying cyber operations as acts of war. It examines the opposing perspectives of Russia and Ukraine, with Russia employing plausible deniability, cyber proxies, and information warfare, while Ukraine implemented proactive defensive strategies, including the “IT Army.” A qualitative methodology based on literature review and expert analysis synthesizes knowledge to identify patterns and insights. The dissertation analyzes the 2015 BlackEnergy and 2016 Industroyer attacks, focusing on techniques such as spear-phishing, SCADA exploitation, and malware deployment. It highlights the cascading effects of energy sector failures on other critical systems and evaluates Ukraine’s resilience measures, including cybersecurity legislation, decentralization, and AI integration. The research emphasizes the importance of international cooperation, public-private partnerships, and legal frameworks to strengthen preparedness against growing cyber threats. In conclusion, this dissertation underscores the real-world consequences of cyberwarfare and the urgent need for collaborative, legally sound strategies to defend critical infrastructure. Lessons from Ukraine’s experience offer valuable insights for the global community, emphasizing the necessity of reinforcing defences in an increasingly interconnected digital world

Authors in the community:

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  A

  Adolfo Caldeira

  ist1107383

Supervisors of this institution:

• 

  C

  Carlos Manuel Costa Lourenço Caleiro

  ist13222

mathematics - Mathematics

por - Portuguese

Instituto Superior Técnico