Long-term uncertainty in electricity market modelling, policy, and planning

Ian James Scott

Key information

Authors:

Supervisors:

Carlos Augusto Santos Silva (Carlos Augusto Santos Silva); Pedro Manuel Santos de Carvalho (Pedro Manuel Santos de Carvalho)

Published in

November 5, 2020

Abstract

Uncertainty is an increasingly important aspect of decisionmaking relating to the electricity systems of the future. Over the long-term time horizons required for investment decisions and government policy making, history indicates that forecasts tend to be varied and uncertain. Hence, long-term forecast uncertainty should be an important aspect of any electricity market modelling or planning exercise. However, surprisingly, we do not find this to be the case in the literature.