Does the Electricity Sector in 2050 Belong to Solar Power? A Case Study on Portugal

July 23, 2020

Southern European countries, such as Portugal, can successfully use solar power to meet their climate targets given their favorable exposure to insolation. Assuming the year 2050 and Portugal, this thesis uses a green-field investment model to outline which uncertainties are associated with solar becoming the major source of energy in the electricity sector. An extensive sensitivity analysis, by performing a Monte Carlo analysis, evaluates different technologies’ development - investment and fuel costs. Additionally, different scenarios, including expensive battery storage, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and an addition of hydrogen demand, are studied. The results show that solar power, despite of being primarily influenced by the solar power investment cost, is also impacted by the investment cost of battery storage. When battery storage investment costs is, on average, lower than 91 k€/MWh, solar power becomes the major electricity generation source of the electricity sector when the solar power investment cost is lower than 650 k€/MW. Still, at times when the demand cannot be met by only solar power and the excess energy stored in batteries, wind power, CCS technologies, and biogas power plants become important. Nuclear power becomes extremely important at times when solar power is frequently complemented. The system Levelized Cost of Electricity(LCOE), from decreasing the solar power investment cost from 800 k€/MW to 200 k€/MW is reduced by 24%, reaching a lowest of 48 €/MWh. CCS technologies promote an increase in system LCOE by 4 €/MWh, while adding a demand for hydrogen lowers system LCOE by 2 €/MWh.

Authors in the community:

• 

  M

  Maria De Oliveira Loureiro

  ist425602

Supervisors of this institution:

• 

  C

  Carlos Augusto Santos Silva

  ist23960

mechanical-engineering - Mechanical engineering

por - Portuguese

Instituto Superior Técnico