Improvement of operational wave forecasts in the Western North Atlantic Ocean with a transformer model

December 30, 2025

This study investigates the enhancement of daily significant wave height (SWH) forecasts in the Western North Atlantic by integrating the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) with a Transformer-based model. The model is designed to enhance GEFS 10-day wave forecasts daily, utilising forecasted GEFS wind and wave parameters as input features, while buoy data is used only during the training and validation stages. Using buoy data from four National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) stations (41040, 41044, 41048, and 41049), the model is trained on 8 months of data, validated over 2 months, and tested on a 2-month dataset. The accuracy of the Transformer model is assessed on a day-by-day basis for up to 10 days, with notable improvements in forecast accuracy, particularly at station 41044. For this station, the Transformer model shows an overall improvement of over 40 % compared to GEFS. In contrast, the worst performance is observed at station 41048, where the Transformer model achieved a 22 % improvement over 10 days, with a MAPE of 14.06 % and an SI of 0.221. On the 10th day, the Transformer model outperforms GEFS, though the accuracy generally decreased over the forecast period. The results indicate that GEFS wind speed and GEFS SWH are critical features for improving SWH forecasts. These findings highlight the potential of hybrid forecasting approaches to enhance both short- and long-term operational wave forecasts, even in cases where measured data is limited to relatively short periods.

Authors in the community:

• 

  D

  Dina Maria Fernandes da Silva

  ist33470

  Affiliations and sources

  IST > CENTEC

  Centro de Engenharia e Tecnologia Naval e Oceânica

• 

  C

  Carlos Guedes Soares

  ist11869

  Affiliations and sources

  IST > CENTEC

  Centro de Engenharia e Tecnologia Naval e Oceânica

VoR - Version of Record

Elsevier

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0029801825027684?via%3Dihub

Applied Ocean Research

123085

342

Part 4

0029-8018

10.1016/j.oceaneng.2025.123085

other-engineering-and-technologies - Other engineering and technologies

Keywords

• Significant wave height
• Transformer model
• Buoy data
• Global Ensemble Forecast System
• Machine learning

eng - English