Identificação, caracterização e mitigação de riscos costeiros do ponto de vista da indústria seguradora

Diogo Pais Rabaça Bento Ferreira

Key information

Authors:

Diogo Pais Rabaça Bento Ferreira (Diogo Pais Rabaça Bento Ferreira)

Supervisors:

Diogo Silva Mendes (Diogo Silva Mendes); Diogo Filipe da Silva Fonseca

Published in

December 11, 2025

Abstract

This dissertation addresses the heightened risks faced by coastal areas due to increasing population and asset concentration combined with climate change effects like sea-level rise. It reviews key coastal risks, their impacts, and prevention strategies, emphasizing the insurance industry's vital role in managing these risks through innovative, community-specific products. Recognizing the limited availability of coastal flood insurance in Portugal, this work proposes an easy to-use methodology using geographic information systems (GIS) and the bathtub approach to map coastal flood risks along the Portuguese coast. This methodology was then applied to a vulnerable location, the TRYP Hotel in Costa da Caparica, demonstrating a practical assessment of the model developed to map coastal flood risk and quantify potential annual average losses (AAL) for insurers. This work further examines factors influencing AAL, such as risk dilution through combined coverage of less flood-prone locations, climate change impacts under two global warming scenarios (1.5 °C and 2.0 °C), and the risk mitigation offered by robust coastal defense structures. Results reveal significant increases in AAL driven by climate change and rising sea levels, with expected increases by 2030 of 8.39% under the 1.5 °C scenario and 11.08% under the 2.0 °C scenario. By 2050, these increases escalate dramatically to approximately 18.83% and 29.39%, respectively. These findings emphasize the growing protection gap and the urgent need for the insurance industry, alongside with other civil society stakeholders, to play a stronger role in managing and mitigating coastal flood risks.