Article
Predictive risk analysis for leakage accidents with dynamic behaviour
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
— 2026 — Elsevier
Key information
Authors:
Published in
July 2026
Abstract
A predictive risk analysis approach is proposed for modelling leakage accidents with dynamic behaviour based on time-series simulations in order to enhance data foundation of risk analysis tasks. Critical failure items are first identified by the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis model and the occurrence probabilities of which are subsequently computed by the Bayesian and Event Tree Analysis methods. The dynamic behaviour of the accidents is simulated to reveal their time-series failure consequences. With the probabilities and consequences obtained, a predictive risk analysis approach is established as a basis to calculate the risk index of accidents with the consideration of dynamic behaviours. The applicability and superior performance of the proposed approach are illustrated by a leakage risk analysis of offshore hydrogen storage systems. Overall, the proposed approach extends the existing inductive risk analysis concepts to predictive patterns and contributes to leakage accidents analysis and prevention with the situation of data and knowledge scarcities.
Publication details
Authors in the community:
Xiangyu Kong
ist430232
He Li
ist428302
Carlos Guedes Soares
ist11869
Publication version
VoR - Version of Record
Publisher
Elsevier
Link to the publisher's version
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0951832026000542
Title of the publication container
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
First page or article number
112238
Volume
271
Fields of Science and Technology (FOS)
other-engineering-and-technologies - Other engineering and technologies
Publication language (ISO code)
eng - English
Rights type:
Restricted access