Construction of simulation models based on event logs

May 12, 2026

The increasing complexity of modern systems has reinforced the importance of stochastic simulation as a tool for performance analysis and decision support. This thesis presents a methodology for constructing a metamodel derived from logged simulation data. The metamodel serves as an analytical abstraction of the original simulation, capturing the relationship between system inputs and the statistical behavior of the observed outputs. The proposed architecture, implemented in AweSim, integrates event logging mechanisms at key nodes of the network and applies statistical post-processing to the collected data. Each entity is recorded both before and after passing through every queue, service activity, or probabilistic branch, enabling a precise reconstruction of its trajectory through the system. This logging structure provides detailed information on entity arrivals, service times, and routing decisions, forming the basis for the statistical analysis and metamodel fitting process. Three main procedures are employed: (i) detection and removal of the initial transient (warm-up) period to ensure steady-state validity, (ii) fitting of theoretical probability distributions to the steady-state data using the Kolmogorov--Smirnov goodness-of-fit test, and (iii) comparison between the reconstructed metamodel and the original simulation model in terms of topology, routing probabilities, deterministic behavior, and inferred transition-time distributions. The approach contributes to the automation of simulation output analysis and to the simplification of complex stochastic systems into interpretable and reusable mathematical forms.

Authors in the community:

• 

  A

  André João Nelas Ferreira

  ist192423

Supervisors of this institution:

• 

  P

  Pedro Manuel Guerra e Silva Reis dos Santos

  ist13131

electrical-engineering-electronic-engineering-information-engineering - Electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering

eng - English

Instituto Superior Técnico